FOOTBALL Colombia Primera A

Deportivo Pasto vs Deportes Tolima Prediction: recommended pick & analysis

Deportivo Pasto

vs

Deportes Tolima

May 14, 2026 May 14, 2026 01:00

Recommended pick

Quick indicators to understand this match more clearly.

Risk: High
Model prob.
66%
Value vs odds
+12.2pp
Value
Stake
2/5

Explanation

In the upcoming match between Deportivo Pasto and Deportes Tolima, a competitive game is anticipated, as both teams are positioned near the top of the Colombian Primera A table. Deportivo Pasto holds the third spot, while Deportes Tolima is in sixth place. Statistics suggest that this match may be more tactical than offensive, which could affect the total number of corners awarded during the game.

The model probability supports the selection of fewer than 9.5 corners, indicating a 66% likelihood of this outcome occurring. This is a notable contrast to the odds of 1.86, which imply an implicit probability of only 53.76%. The difference of 17.69% indicates a favorable edge that could make this bet worth considering.

Nonetheless, it's important to be aware of certain risks. While the data points to a match with fewer corners, factors such as on-field dynamics and refereeing decisions could impact the result. Additionally, if one team finds themselves in a position where they need to score crucial points, the game might shift towards a more open style, potentially altering expectations regarding corner counts.

Bet slip

Our pick

Prediction

Under 9.5 corners

Odds 1.86

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Last updated on May 11, 2026