FOOTBALL España Copa del Rey

Tavernes vs UD Maracena Prediction: recommended pick & analysis

Tavernes

vs

UD Maracena

October 4, 2026 October 4, 2026 16:00

Model signals

Quick model signals for this match.

Model prob.
85%
Value vs odds
+9.2pp
Value
Stake
5/5
Risk
Low
Variance

Explanation

The match between Tavernes and UD Maracena presents an intriguing contest in the Copa del Rey. Both teams have shown a tendency to end their games in draws, with Tavernes finishing their last match level and UD Maracena recording four draws in their last six games. This context indicates that a double result (x2) could be a solid option given the conservative playing style of both clubs.

The probabilistic model assigns an 85% likelihood of success for this selection, with odds of 1.32, reflecting a 9.24% adjusted edge. This suggests that the potential return is favorable based on the analyzed data, indicating that the market may not fully reflect the reality. The implied probability of the odds further reinforces this choice, as it stands at 75.76%, which is lower than the probability offered by the model.

However, it’s crucial to keep in mind certain associated risks. The low frequency of direct encounters and differing competitive contexts can introduce uncertainty. While the data is substantial, the match's development may be impacted by external factors beyond analysis. It's advisable to consider these variables when making a decision on the bet.

Bet slip

Our pick

Prediction

UD Maracena or draw

Odds 1.32

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Informational content. No guarantee of profits. Please bet responsibly.

Last updated on October 3, 2026