FOOTBALL Premier League

Sunderland vs Chelsea Prediction: recommended pick & analysis

Sunderland

Chelsea

May 24, 2026 May 24, 2026 15:00

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Model signals

Quick model signals for this match.

Model prob.

60%

Value vs odds

+21.8pp

Value

Stake

2/5

Risk

High

Variance

Explanation

In a Premier League clash, Sunderland is set to take on Chelsea at the Stadium of Light. Currently sitting in tenth place, Sunderland has been inconsistent, suffering four defeats in their last six home games. Chelsea, positioned eighth, has also struggled on the road, with three losses in their last six league matches. Historical matchups lean in Chelsea's favor, boasting a 67% win rate in their last six encounters with Sunderland.

The model suggests a 60% chance for Sunderland to win, translating to odds of 2.62 in the handicap market. This difference implies a 22% edge, hinting that Sunderland might be worth considering to avoid defeat in this matchup. Being the home team, Sunderland could feel the pressure to secure a favorable result, which could play a key role in their performance.

However, it's essential to acknowledge potential risks. The uncertainty surrounding teams of this caliber might impact their gameplay, and despite the model favoring Sunderland, the historical results against Chelsea require attention. This factor may lead bettors to adopt a more cautious approach for this game.