FOOTBALL Serie A

Roma vs Lazio Prediction: recommended pick & analysis

Roma

vs

Lazio

May 17, 2026 May 17, 2026 10:30

Model signals

Quick model signals for this match.

Model prob.
61.5%
Value vs odds
-9.9pp
No value
Stake
2/5

Explanation

The Derby della Capitale between Roma and Lazio is poised to be an intense match, as both teams aim to improve their standings in the league. Roma, currently sitting in fifth place, enjoys the advantage of playing at home and has shown solid form with three wins in their last home games. In contrast, Lazio is positioned ninth and has experienced a more inconsistent performance in their recent matches.

According to the analysis, the probability of a Roma victory stands at around 61.54%, while the odds of 1.4 suggest an implied probability of 71.43%. This indicates a favorable margin for Roma as the home team; however, the risk of a possible loss remains a consideration. The betting proportions suggest that Roma is a reasonably appealing choice for this match.

Nonetheless, surprises are always a possibility in such encounters. The derby's nature means that the outcome can be unpredictable, especially since Lazio has shown competitiveness in their recent games. Thus, while the statistics favor Roma, it’s wise to approach this matchup with a sense of caution, keeping in mind the inherent uncertainty of the event.

Bet slip

Our pick

Prediction

Roma draw no bet

Odds 1.4

Best betting bonuses

1xBet

Up to €300 for you New users only

300€

Sign up and get your bonus with your first deposit

Register

Betsson

Double your deposit up to €100 New users only

100€

Sign up, make your first deposit and get a 100% bonus

Register

Other predictions

All predictions

Informational content. No guarantee of profits. Please bet responsibly.

Last updated on May 14, 2026