FOOTBALL Serie A

Roma vs Fiorentina Prediction: recommended pick & analysis

Roma

vs

Fiorentina

May 4, 2026 May 4, 2026 18:45

Model signals

Quick model signals for this match.

Model prob.
60%
Value vs odds
+4.1pp
Value
Stake
2/5

Explanation

The match between Roma and Fiorentina is set to be exciting, particularly due to the rivalry present in the Central Italy Derby. Roma currently sits in sixth place in the standings with 61 points, showcasing strong home performance with 3 wins in their last 6 matches. In contrast, Fiorentina finds itself in a more precarious position at 15th place with 37 points, which might affect the motivation of their players when playing away from home.

There's a notable advantage for Roma in their head-to-head history against Fiorentina, having secured 29 victories in 53 encounters, further bolstering the rationale to back the home team. While a 60% chance of victory for Roma has been suggested by predictive models, it's essential to remain cautious. The odds of 1.79 imply an attractive value bet.

Nonetheless, risks are inherent in any match. The performance inconsistency of both teams could be a factor to consider. Fiorentina has managed some positive results in their recent away games, adding an intriguing twist to the matchup. While the analysis is grounded in solid data, the patterns of play will be key factors to monitor as the match unfolds.

Bet slip

Our pick

Prediction

Roma -1

Odds 1.79

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Informational content. No guarantee of profits. Please bet responsibly.

Last updated on May 2, 2026